The quarterback is the most important position on the field. You’ll find very few people who disagree with this sort of sentiment.
Heck, you could argue that it’s the most important position in team sports. The success of a quarterback is directly tied to the success of a team. Bad quarterback play? Tough luck pal.
It’s not impossible to be successful with an average quarterback. The Seattle Seahawks just won a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold, who is likely above average, but not among the heavies of the NFL. This is rare though. You typically need a play caller at the top of his game to compete for the Lombardi Trophy.
You can break NFL teams into two categories along these lines. Teams that have their quarterback for the future and those who don’t.
The Safe and Secure
The reasons a team may find themselves in the first bucket are obvious. You possess a franchise quarterback that you can build an entire team around or at least trust to lead your roster. Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (with Patrick Mahomes) or the New England Patriots (with Drake Maye) fall squarely into this category.
Where this category is far less clear is in regard to young stars.
Where does a team like the Las Vegas Raiders fall with rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza? Or what about the Tennessee Titans with Cam Ward?
Because both were first overall picks, Mendoza and Ward project to be franchise cornerstones (there’s a bit of guessing here after all), and thus both belong in this category. But a team like the Atlanta Falcons who have Michael Penix Jr., who has struggled, fall into the second category.
Along these same lines, teams with young quarterbacks that have shown sustained brilliance, despite some concerns, still belong in this category. There is still plenty to build around here, and teams can convince themselves that if the pieces fall into place, they can become among the league’s best.
The two that spring to mind are the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud and the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels.
Average quarterbacks, game managers if you will, pose similar challenges. The Seahawks are in this category because of Darnold’s playoff success. So are the San Francisco 49ers because of Brock Purdy’s consistent level of play, and more importantly, the money they are paying him.
The Indianapolis Colts don’t slot in here as Daniel Jones is more of a stopgap than anything else, especially following his Achilles tear last season.
But in general, this category is a spectrum with teams being at various levels of satisfied with their quarterback situations.
The Have Nots
The second category is far murkier and has its own subcategories. The first of which are teams with young, unproven quarterbacks that lack the pedigree of Mendoza and Ward, or that have failed to live up to expectations.
The Falcons are in this subcategory. So are the Carolina Panthers. Bryce Young led them to the playoffs last season—despite Carolina having a losing record of 8-9—but hasn’t played up to the level of a first overall draft pick.
Next is the stopgap. These are not long-term solutions at the quarterback position. The hope is that the team around them lifts the quarterback enough, or that the team is bad enough to secure a top pick to draft a new quarterback.
Teams in this bucket may have different levels of team quality. For example, the aforementioned Colts seem destined for an 8-9 season. Indianapolis may want Jones to be the starter for the next five years, but with his injury problems and history of inconsistent play this seem unlikely.
The New York Jets though project to be one of the worst teams in the league with Geno Smith at the helm. It’s easy to see that they are already looking ahead to the 2027 NFL Draft.
The final subcategory is the dice roll. This is reserved for teams that are taking a chance on a player who didn’t succeed in their previous situation or has a less proven track record.
There is some level of overlap between this subcategory and the stopgaps as both Jones and Smith could fit well into each.
The premier examples are the Minnesota Vikings and Miami Dolphins. The Vikings signed Kyler Murray during the offseason following a disappointing end to his time with the Arizona Cardinals. The Dolphins likewise signed Malik Willis after he impressed in his (very) limited playing time the last two seasons with the Green Bay Packers.
Murray certainly isn’t expected to perform at a high level given how small his contract is. It’s a low-risk, high-reward scenario for Minnesota.
Willis and Miami are in a different situation as his contract was quite a bit more lucrative, but given the roster around him, the Dolphins would be smart to anticipate a potential mediocre season.
