The NBA Finals are set, and tipoff is just mere days away. The San Antonio Spurs represent the Western Conference, while the New York Knicks are the Eastern Conference representative. The dual storylines are fascinating.
The Spurs have a chance to cement their legacy as the franchise of the future. A team built around a future great, a young, electric backcourt duo, and a cast of role players. They’re the next generation of the Tim Duncan Spurs.
They’re propelled by a franchise altering player that places winning above all else and a coach that seems equally destined for greatness. They’re not just ahead of schedule; they’ve thrown out the whole calendar. They were “too young,” “too green,” “not experienced,” and yet they took down the Oklahoma City Thunder.
On the other side there are the Knicks who have taken a chainsaw to the Eastern Conference. May saw 11 wins and no losses for New York. They dominated their opponents throughout this stretch. They’re doing the thing that all good teams do—peak at the right time.
New York City is starving for basketball success. The Knicks have been a punchline in the 21st century. They’ve had false hope and glimpses of occasional success, but nothing quite like this. They’ve always been one heartbreak away from falling back to the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
These narratives are what make this series so interesting.
Preview
Any preview of this series must start by discussing Victor Wembanyama. The 22-year-old Frenchman is verging on historic territory. The number of players that have led a team to the Finals at this young of an age is very low. The two most recent examples that spring to mind are Tim Duncan in 1999 and LeBron James in 2007. Wembanyama is on the fast-track to GOAT status.
Standing in his way is Jalen Brunson and the Knicks. Brunson still carries the load for New York, but he has far less miles on him this year. A weak Eastern Conference allowed Brunson to ease off the pedal a bit. His points per game during this playoff run are the lowest of his Knick’s tenure. And more importantly, his minutes played are also lower. New York only played eight games in May (compared to San Antonio’s 13) which means that their best players should be fresh for the Finals.
While the two super-stars hog headlines, the supporting players of these teams will be equally important. San Antonio’s three-headed monster of Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, and De’Aaron Fox are an excellent complement to Wembanyama inside. Harper excelled in the previous series against the Thunder, displaying his limitless potential; Castle continues to be a two-way wrecking ball, and Fox brings a calming element to such a young team.
But even beyond them, San Antonio has a cadre of wings to throw out at any given moment. Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, and Carter Bryant all bring different elements to the roster but are valuable in their own ways. This doesn’t even mention the Sixth Man of the Year winner Keldon Johnson either.
New York has its own stable of players. Karl-Anthony Towns has been wildly efficient during the playoffs, shooting nearly 50% from 3. Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges are the perfect role players for this team.
It’s perhaps flown a bit under the radar, but OG Anunoby has arguably been New York’s second-best player during the playoffs. He’s the second-leading scorer at 19.7 points per game, and, like Towns, is hovering around 50% from beyond the arc. Anunoby will also be important because of his defensive versatility.
Prediction
It’s hard to overlook just how few games New York has played in the last month. Their fresh legs could be a massive advantage over the Spurs who just finished a grueling seven-game series over the Thunder.
The Knick’s level of experience also falls in their favor. The Spurs are so young, but after this playoff run, it’s hard to doubt their playoff bona fides at this point.
The health of Mitchell Robinson will be the biggest factor in this series. He had pinky surgery but is expected to play in Game 1. The question is, how much of a factor will the pinky be? Will it limit Robinson?
Robinson might be the only player on the Knicks with any ability to slow down Wembanyama. His combination of size and strength may be enough to deter him from Wembanyama’s usual paint dominance.
Towns would be a disaster guarding Wembanyama. Wembanyama would almost certainly put Towns in foul trouble and would limit Towns’ offensive output by turning him into a two-way player.
But even if Robinson plays at 100%, the San Antonio should still win this series. I’ll plant my flag here: Wembanyama goes nuclear in this series. It’ll be the culmination of the playoffs and a declaration to the rest of the NBA. He’s here, he’s legit, and he’s going to be at the top for a very long time.
His current playoff averages are about 23 points per game, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3.5 blocks. I’d expect a driven Wembanyama—free from Thunder harassment—to bump up all those averages.
Brunson will try his best to keep pace, but the Spurs’ team defense will be too stifling. The Knicks may win Game 3 or 4 when the series goes to New York, but I think they will struggle to find wins.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
