Manchester United fans are advised to temper expectations of an immediate turnaround under new manager Rúben Amorim, according to new research.
The data, conducted by BonusCodeBets.co.uk, looked into the last 20 in-season Premier League managerial changes, comparing the six games before and after the switches, revealing that newly appointed managers see an average of less than one additional win.
On average, Premier League teams under new management gain an additional 2.65 points in their first six league games (rising from 4.55 to 7.2 points), whilst also seeing an increase of 2.2 goals (from 5.3 to 7.5 goals).
From the slight uptick in performances, new managers can also expect a slight rise in league position, moving up the table one spot.
When it comes to Amorim’s impact, United supporters may find themselves cheering a steady climb into 12th place, rather than dreaming of a title charge, especially with games away to Manchester City and Arsenal in his first six.
Before Erik ten Hag’s dismissal, United gained 11 points in the last six games under the Dutchman, exceeding the average new manager bounce by 3.8 points.
But goals were hard to come by in that time, with the six goals in six games scored being on par with the typical increase seen after a change in manager.
That said, some new managers make an immediate impact. Roy Hodgson delivered a masterclass in resuscitating struggling Crystal Palace in 2022/23, taking over from Patrick Vieira and securing 10 additional points in his first six games while sparking a dazzling 11-goal surge.
Unai Emery brought similar magic to Villa Park that season, igniting Aston Villa’s attack with eight additional goals and using his tactical expertise to lift the team six places up the table.
However, the data suggests such turnarounds are rare exceptions rather than expected, with Tottenham fans needing to spare a thought for their 2022/23 manager, Antonio Conte. The Italian holds the dubious distinction of departing from the highest league position of any manager in the last 20 changes – leaving while they sat in 4th.
Similarly, Brighton fans can attest to the risks of managerial upheaval after Graham Potter’s departure for Chelsea in 2022/23. Despite also sitting 4th, the Seagulls suffered an eight-point drop and scored three fewer goals under Roberto De Zerbi.
Top Five Most Disappointing In-season Managerial Changes Of The Last 20 Years, Ranked By Points:
|
Rank |
Team |
Points Six Games Before |
Points Six Games After |
% Decline in Form |
|
1st |
Brighton & Hove Albion |
13 |
5 |
61.54% |
|
2nd |
Chelsea |
7 |
4 |
42.86% |
|
3rd |
Southampton |
5 |
3 |
40.00% |
|
4th |
Tottenham Hotspur |
10 |
7 |
30.00% |
|
5th |
Everton |
4 |
3 |
25.00% |
On some occasions, new managers make no impact at all, most notably Frank Lampard at Chelsea in 2022/23 – the former Blues midfielder made no league progress in his first six games in charge.
This was followed by his tough stint at Everton in 2021/22, where the Toffees scored four fewer goals in his first six games.
A spokesperson for BonusCodeBets.co.uk said: “While Rúben Amorim’s arrival at Manchester United offers optimism, our research shows that mid-season managerial changes typically yield only modest improvements.
“Our message to United fans would be to not expect a Fergie-time miracle just yet. Rúben might bring the ‘Amor’ to United, but don’t expect instant sparks as the numbers just don’t back it up!”
