The tragedy of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has dominated headlines since it began on the 24th of February. Since then, a lot of false information and fear-mongering has been circulating on social media. To combat that, here is a realistic guide to what you can expect to happen in the UK as a result of the conflict in Ukraine.
Firstly, it is extremely unlikely that the UK or any other Western military will engage in war with Russia in the near future. Because Ukraine is not a part of Nato, militaristic support is not required from the UK or the US, or any other Nato country. This is why so far, many countries have responded to this situation with sanctions. Should Putin further his invasion into any neighboring countries that are a part of Nato, the other countries in the alliance would be bound to support them with the force of their militaries. However, that is unlikely at this time.
Economic Effects
Because any sort of physical engagement is unlikely, most of the effects of this conflict on citizens of the UK and the US (and other countries who sanction Russia) will be economic. After Putin’s invasion, the international stock market dropped considerably. In addition to the stock market, Russia is a large supplier of gas across all of Europe and prices have skyrocketed since the 24th. Although the UK relies less on Russian gas than many other countries in Europe, that does not necessarily protect it against rising prices, as the markets here are connected to those on the mainland of Europe.
In addition to rising prices, another threat from this conflict is Russia’s economic response to the imposed sanctions. As we have already determined, militaristic retaliation is extremely unlikely. However, because Russia is such a large supplier of gas to the West, limiting the supply is a possible response to the economic punishments they are facing. For the UK, this is not necessarily a big problem as only 3 or 4% of gas is sourced from Russia. However, for other European countries, this could prove to be a much bigger problem. While there are short-term plans in place for countries like Germany, which relies on Russia for a majority of their gas supply, some serious re-working of the pipeline system and the gas market would be necessary should this become a long-term problem. This problem is not necessarily likely, as Russia continued to supply Europe with gas throughout its invasion of Crimea in 2014 and 2015.
What you can do
So, you shouldn’t be worrying about going to war with Russia. As of right now, the most visible effects of the conflict will be seen in the economy, specifically gas prices and the international stock market. If you are searching for a way to do something meaningful amid this crisis, consider donating to Ukrainian refugees by looking up collection points in your area or donating to organizations supporting Ukraine such as the Red Cross or With Ukraine, set up by the Embassy of Ukraine in the UK. You can also show your support for the Ukrainian people by going to demonstrations. Additionally, fact-checking the news you read and circulate—especially on social media—will help everybody stay responsibly informed.
