UFC 317 on 28 June 2025 is set to be an absolute blockbuster event. Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira are on a collision course to decide who is to be crowned king of the lightweight division.
An undefeated rise for Ilia going head-to-head with Oliveira (one of the best submission artists in the tournament) should provide fans with a war in Vegas.
If you’re looking to have a bet on the fight, comparing online betting sites with best odds and markets could be worth your while before backing which fighter will see their hand raised.
Fighter Profiles – Career Trajectories
Topuria comes into this encounter with a UFC record of 16-0. His mammoth knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 catapulted the Georgian Spanish fighter through his division ranks and quickly became associated with heavy hitting and unrelenting pressure.
His gameplan seeks to suffocate the opponent and swarm them with pressure from the first bell to the result.
Charles Oliveira, on the other hand, is a highly experienced fighter and the man who holds the greatest number of submissions in the UFC. A former champion, he is a creative fighter who is capable of taking the fight to a place where he is comfortable and winning it there.
Style Contrast – Striking Precision vs Ground Control
For Topuria, he will look to dance around opponents with his dynamic footwork. If he is allowed to dictate the pace of the fight, he will grow in confidence and chip away at Oliveira systematically.
For Charles, he is arguably one of the most (if not the most) dangerous fighters on the mat. His ability to end fights through submission is second to none and his transitions are just too good to accurately defend against.
So, the real contrast here is while Charles will no doubt want to take the fight to the ground, Topuria will need to keep the fight standing and trading blows.
Key Metrics that Matter
A few metrics to consider ahead of this fight – especially for those wanting to place a bet on the fight – are the following.
Significant strikes landed per minute favours Topuria. He is trading at around 5.47 while Charles Oliveira can only manage around 3.76.
Take Down Accuracy is another key metric. Charles leads this with 41%, simply because his approach is often so varied.
Submission attempts per 15 minutes sees Charles dominating by a massive 2.7 average (this is compared to the 0.4 of Topuria).
Fight Environment & Psychological Factors
The Vegas crowd is always incredibly hostile and buzzing with energy. For Topuria, he will relish this environment and look to feed on the energy in Vegas. He has become a fighter synonymous with pressure environments. One who grows in confidence as the fight goes on and becomes more and more dangerous.
With that being said, Oliveira is a previous champion, and pressure will be something he is absolutely used to. You don’t want to count him out of big environments and his resilience when his back is against the wall is simply outstanding.
Betting Tips
This is a fight which is likely to be closely fought and so the betting opportunities for UFC fans.
Topuria to win by KO/TKO is our pick for the encounter and the odds you can get around the selection are favorably priced. With that being said though, if Charles Oliveira is able to withstand an early onslaught, he might become more and more relevant in the fight so be sure to keep an eye on the live in-play options.
Fight Prediction
This could very well be a fight for the ages. The fierce striking and aggressive approach of Topuria meets the calm and systematic submission-orientated Charles Oliveira. These two fighters will leave nothing on the canvas, but our pick is Ilia Topuria to come away with another massive victory.
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