The Finals are set. The Boston Celtics will match up against the Dallas Mavericks to determine the 2024 NBA champion.
This year’s playoffs have already been incredible. From the typical superstars like Lebron and Kevin Durant not making it out of the first round to Anthony Edwards and an untested Timberwolves team knocking off the defending champion Nuggets, they have been as much fun as any recent playoffs.
Now, one last final awesome matchup to cap off the year. Here’s the breakdown of what to expect and my prediction.
The Celtics are no longer underdogs
The Boston Celtics are one of basketball’s most historic franchises. They want to win their record-setting 18th league championship and be the best team in the 2024 regular season. Their core players have playoff experience, but this year it’s a bit different.
They are finally the favorite in the NBA championship. They were expected to lose against the Warriors in 2022 and they did in six games. Now, all the pressure is on their superstars, because if they don’t win a championship this year it will only get more difficult in the following years.
The Celtics Keys to Winning
Their superstars need to be superstars
Big-time games call for big-time players. Luckily for Boston, they have two immensely talented guys who lead their squad. Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Tatum and Brown have been remarkable this season, and throughout these playoffs, if they play up to their recent standard, the Celtics have a fighting chance.
Kristaps Porzingis
How healthy is Porzingis? The NBA finals could very well hinge upon how this question gets answered. Porzingis went down in the first round of the playoffs with a right hamstring strain and hasn’t played since. It’s been over a month since and he will suit up for the first time for game one.
During the year Porzingis was a monster in the paint. He averaged 20 points a game and led the team in blocks. He was the big addition to the Celtics this year and they improved immensely with his help. So far during these playoffs they have fared just fine without him, but he is going to get valuable minutes, so he needs to be effective.
Force the Mavericks Role Players to Score
Luka Dončić and Kyrie are going to light up the stat sheet, it’s inevitable. But what the Celtics cannot let happen is guys like P.J. Washington to put up 20-point games while shooting the ball at high rates of efficiency. The Celtics have more depth on their roster; they must ensure it feels like that every game. If they can do those three things they will have a good chance of hosting the Larry O’Brien trophy in the next week or two.
The Mavericks should play into being the underdogs
No one expected the 5th-seeded Mavericks to make it out of the Western Conference yet they did. And they did so without having to overcome a lot of adversity. They only lost 3 games in three series. They already took down the top-seeded Thunder but now they are facing a different beast. They are going up against the big bad Celtics. It is a team riddled with history and talent that has an iconic venue and a notoriously unrelenting fan base. These are two teams that don’t have matchup history but locker room history. Porzingis played on the Mavs, there are rumors that Doncic and he didn’t have a great relationship. Kyrie played for the Celtics and has no love lost for Boston. The Mavs are going to need to fight tooth and nail to win this series and they need that mentality early to try and steal a game on the road.
The Mavericks Keys to Winning
Luka Doncic
If the Celtics superstars are important to their success, the Mavs superstars are everything. Kyrie and Luka combined for far and away the most points of any tandem this season and it’s been the same story in the postseason. Luka has caused havoc for every opponent and showed a lot of emotion while doing so. He and Kyrie are going to get a lot of hate in Boston and will need to be excellent to help the Mavs win the title.
Keep Defending the 3
The Mavs defense has shown up postseason long and must be locked in for this last series. The Celtics have the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and are not afraid to let it fly at all times. Derrick White has been launching threes all playoffs and is very effective from beyond the arc. Tatum, Brown, Al Horford, and Porzingis are all capable from long-range as well. Dallas did a good job against the second and third-best 3-point shooting teams in the Thunder and Timberwolves, and they need to continue that momentum to keep the games within reach.
Drive at Porzingis
The Celtics are putting a heavy load on Porzingis’s health and the Mavericks need to test him. If Kyrie and Luka can get downhill and force Porzingis to move around a lot and make defense plays it could tire out a player who hasn’t seen in-game action in a month. And if they force the rest of the defense to play a little tighter it will open numerous possibilities for the Mavericks role players to score. The Mavericks need P.J. Washington and Derick Lively to make those momentum-swinging plays, especially on the road. Testing Porzingis’s health might be the way to do that.
Prediction: Celtics in 7
No matter what, this will be a fun series. Both environments will be on fire as these teams look for their first title in over a decade. It’ll be hard fought, and these superstars will prove their worth. But in the end, the depth of the Celtics will be too much for the Mavericks to handle. Luka and Kyrie are incredible, but the burden will be too heavy for them to lift alone, and they won’t get enough help. I see Boston getting their first championship since 2008 and Jayson Tatum being hailed as another hero in the legacy of Celtic greats.
